It’s unpopular to talk about masking, social distancing, and other covid prevention measures. After all, case numbers are down, hospitals aren’t overflowing, and the weather is getting nicer by the day.
But three facts should give us pause. First, our vaccination rates are terrible. Only 32% of Michiganders have had a covid booster. Our booster rate for the elderly is OK compared to other places, but not great. From what I can tell (data are a bit confusing) perhaps about 2/3 of Michigan’s elderly have been boosted. This is an under-reported problem. Since the start of the omicron surge, we’ve known that a booster is required to fight this variant. Having 2 shots is not enough. This leaves millions of Michiganders susceptible to omicron infection.
But what if you had omicron during the latest surge? The best guess is that immunity to re-infection lasts about 3-6 months. The surge started in December, meaning that immunity is already waning.
The next disturbing fact is a new variant. The most recent surge was predominantly “omicron BA.1”. We are now seeing a new variant—BA.2—surging in Europe and Asia. In areas with poor vaccination rates, it’s wreaking havoc. Hong Kong is suffering from a disastrous number of covid deaths, probably due to low vaccination rates in the elderly and reliance on a not-great vaccine.
And BA.2 is ridiculously contagious. From the data we’re seeing, it’s nearly as contagious as measles, which is one of the most contagious viruses known. It looks as if each person with BA.2 tends to infect 12 others if measures aren’t taken to prevent its spread. And once we start seeing case numbers rise, it’s already really, really late in the game.
Which brings us to the third fact. What behaviors are we using to prevent spread? The answer is “a helluva lot less than we were two months ago”. Masking in schools—where vaccination rates are particularly low—is optional. Few people in public are wearing masks. People are moving back to in-person work.
So we may be heading into a perfect storm—a new, more contagious variant, low vaccination rates, and minimal prevention measures. What can we do? Do we need to “shut it all down?”
Of course not. It’s actually very, very simple, although it feels like shouting into the darkness. Make sure you and everyone you love has had all the shots they’re eligible for. For 5-11 year olds that’s 2 shots, for the rest of us 3. Wear a mask in crowded public places, especially schools. If you go to the gym or out to dinner, try to avoid crowded places and times if you can. And keep an eye on the numbers. If you see them climbing, modify your behavior further.
After two years I can’t say I’m terribly optimistic about our ability deal with new surges, but maybe we’ll all surprise each other, or get really, really lucky.
We could use a little luck.
-pal